Typhoon Nanmadol Lashes Japan; Hurricane Fiona Drenches Caribbean
Typhoon Nanmadol made landfall in southern Japan on September 18 as one of the most powerful typhoons to impact the country on record. Nanmadol first reached the island of Kyushu as a category 3-equivalent storm, before making landfall in the mainland part of Japan as a category 1. Leading up to landfall, millions were told to evacuate in Japan as torrential rains and flash flooding posed a major risk for mudslides. Over 85 million people were expected to see at least tropical storm conditions from Nanmadol throughout Japan, with estimated losses close to 10 billion in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) USD.
What is particularly interesting about Nanmadol is that the projected path of the storm took it virtually over the entire country of Japan. Only the northernmost tip of Japan was spared from any tropical storm-force winds. See the snapshot from KinetiCast™ below.
Forecast wind swath of Typhoon Nanmadol, generated by Kineticast™ models using forecast data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
As Nanmadol dissipates, the western Pacific typhoon season appears to be entering a lull, at least for a little while. However, this is not the case elsewhere. Over the weekend in the Atlantic basin, Hurricane Fiona lashed the islands of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Nearly 10 million people were in tropical storm conditions and about 1 million were experiencing hurricane force winds. While Fiona strengthened into a hurricane upon reaching Puerto Rico, the main threat in the Caribbean remained the dangerous flooding and mudslides from the hurricane, particularly in the Dominican Republic. The Dominican Republic is noteworthy for its elevated terrain, which helps to funnel heavy rain down the mountainous slopes and into neighboring communities, often leading to dangerous floods and mudslides. In addition, and significantly, the entirety of Puerto Rico lost power. Economic impacts from Fiona in the Caribbean totaled close to 3 billion in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in USD, primarily in Puerto Rico, an island that is still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Maria 5 years ago.
Forecast wind swath of Hurricane Fiona in the Atlantic, generated by KinetiCast™ models using forecast data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Fiona is expected to pass to the east of most of the Bahamas, though still could bring hurricane conditions to the Turks and Caicos Islands. We will likely not be done dealing with Fiona after this point, however, as several global forecast models take the storm uncomfortably close to the island of Bermuda. In particular, the GFS (Global Forecast System) model has been extremely consistent in showing the center of Fiona taking a path that comes within a dozen or so miles of Bermuda.
Bermuda is no stranger to tropical cyclones and their impacts; however, with the current forecast calling for winds of over 100 miles per hour to lash the island by late Thursday/early Friday, residents need to be cognizant of the impacts. Fortunately, Bermuda has stringent building codes so damage will likely be significantly less than what would happen in many places struck by similarly intense winds. The track could shift somewhat over the next few days; therefore, interests in Bermuda should keep a wary eye on Fiona. To see how the storm track changes and affects losses and impacts in real-time, please reach out to sales@kinanco.com.