Typhoon Noru Makes Landfall in The Philippines; Hurricane Ian a Major Surge Threat to the FL West Coast
Typhoon Noru lashed the Philippines over the weekend, arriving in the main island of Luzon as a category 5-equivalent Typhoon with maximum sustained winds of around 160 mph. What is particularly fascinating, and equally devastating, about Typhoon Noru is that it went from the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane to a category 5 hurricane in just six hours! This rate of explosive intensification means that residents in the Philippines likely had very little time to prepare for the full impacts the storm would bring.
Despite the catastrophic impacts Noru has brought to the Philippines, particularly due to flash flooding and mudslides, we are not done talking about the storm quite yet. That’s because the new projected path from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) takes the storm on a collision course with Vietnam and eventually Laos. See the graphic from KinetiCast™ below.
Forecast wind swath of Typhoon Noru, generated by KinetiCast™ models using forecast data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Current forecast losses from Typhoon Noru exceed 9 billion in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in USD, primarily in Vietnam and The Philippines (due to the ongoing threat of flooding and mudslides there).
Elsewhere, in the Atlantic basin, Hurricane Ian has emerged off the coast of western Cuba as a powerful category 3 hurricane. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) develops Ian into a category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour. This storm poses a major threat to the west central coast of Florida, including highly populated areas along and near the Tampa Bay area.
Forecast wind swath of Hurricane Ian, generated by KinetiCast™ models using forecast data from the National Hurricane Center.
The current track from the National Hurricane Center takes Ian to the south of Tampa Bay, which would promote primarily offshore flow and reduce some of the effects of storm surge flooding in the densely populated and developed real-estate hub. However, this track would still produce potentially catastrophic surge impacts for areas further south, such as around Ft. Myers and Cape Coral. In addition, with Ian expected to slow down upon approach to the west coast of Florida, damage due to rain-induced flooding and prolonged gusty winds will be exacerbated compared to if the storm were moving more quickly. The current projections on KinetiCast™ place the losses from Ian at over 41 billion USD in PPP, which would place Ian in the ranks as one of the costliest tropical cyclones to impact the United States. Changes to the loss numbers and impacts will be updated on KinetiCast™ in real-time as the storm approaches. If you would like to track these changes yourself, please reach out to sales@kinanco.com.