While historical or real-time events are indicative of what could happen, a probabilistic risk assessment, or another custom risk modeling approach, provides a more complete view of the probability of experiencing extreme events and damage. Kinetic Analysis Corporation uses the same suite of models for both real-time, historical, and custom hazard assessments and damage estimation.

One custom product we provide is return period maps based on the historical record. The wind speed return period is best thought of as the annual probability of meeting or exceeding the winds shown for a given return period. The return period is equal to the inverse of the probability. For example, a 25-year return period for an event is equal to a 0.04 probability, or a 4% chance, of occurrence.

The 25-year return period wind speeds shown in the top figure are based on the National Hurricane Center's best-track data for tropical cyclones that occurred from 1950 through 2021. The winds shown in the bottom figure are based on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's best-track data for tropical cyclones that occurred from 1980 through 2021. The winds represent terrain-adjusted, 1-minute sustained winds at 10 m elevation. Note that winds equal to or faster than the return period winds can occur more than once in a year, or in consecutive years.