Philippines M7 Earthquake

There was a relatively large earthquake in the Philippines yesterday. The most likely range for USGS PAGER damage estimates is the 10 to 100 million US$ range. The figures below shows KinetiCast estimates of PGA and a boxplot of direct damage. The mean direct damage is around $1,300 million in US$ PPP.

Image of PGA (peak ground acceleration) as a percentage of “g”, the acceleration due to gravity.

A box and whiskers plot of direct damage from the earthquake. The “dot” is the mean of loss estimates, the bottom and top of the box represent the 25th and 75th quantile of the loss distribution. The darker line across the interior of the box is the median of the losses. The “whiskers” extend to the lowest loss estimate and 1.5 times the interquartile range.

Loss estimates are derived using Kinetic Analysis Corporation’s global exposure data with a 15 arcsecond resolution and a variety of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Distributions of loss estimates can also be generated using multiple versions of global exposure generated using different data sources.

Earthquake ground motion for earthquakes occurring globally are available soon after an event. The data can be provided as PGA, ground shaking in terms of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI), or in terms of spectral accelerations.

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