Typhoon Lan to Strike Japan Later Today

Typhoon Lan will strike central Japan later today, with a landfall in southern Honshu looking most likely [1]. As of the latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Typhoon Lan had sustained winds of 85 miles per hour, making it a category 1-equivalent storm [2]. The system has weakened slightly on approach to Japan (it was previously a category 2 with 100 mile per hour sustained winds) [2]. However, the most severe impacts from Lan will likely be the torrential rains and flash flooding the storm may produce [1]. The typhoon has been moving very slowly on its approach to Japan, averaging just 5 mile per hour of movement as of the latest JTWC advisory [2]. This slow forward motion will exacerbate impacts from rainfall-induced flooding. With Lan expected to pass close to the major city of Osaka, millions of residents will be faced with the potential hazards [1]. The latest forecast graphic from KinetiCast™ shows that 9-12 inches of rain could fall in and around Osaka (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Projected wind swath of Typhoon Lan, generated by KinetiCast™ models using forecast data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The solid hurricane symbol denotes the storm position for this forecast. The filled circles are color-coded by intensity. The circles on the dashed line represent the forecast position of the cyclone at 12-hour intervals, and the circles on the solid line depict the past position of the storm at 6-hour intervals.

Figure 3: Forecast rainfall from Typhoon Khanun, generated by KinetiCast™ models using forecast data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The purple area is highlighted to show the potential for 9-12 inches of rain to fall near Osaka, Japan.

Global weather forecast models show additional tropical storms and typhoon forming in the Western Pacific after Lan dissipates [3], which means we will likely have more to watch over the coming weeks. The Western Pacific has dominated our attention, but with the historical peak in Atlantic hurricanes occurring around September 10, activity could soon increase there as well [4]. Here at Kinetic Analysis Corporation, we provide you with accurate, near real-time information about a tropical cyclone as it unfolds. We do this by synthesizing information from a variety of sources and translating the meteorological hazards into easily digestible impact information. This includes populations affected by tropical storm/hurricane force winds and storm surge, economic loss and structural damage estimates, and shutdown times for facilities such as airports and seaports. All this information is available in our state-of-the-art web app, KinetiCast™. If you would like more information, please reach out to aagastra@kinanco.com.

References:

1.     https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/14/weather-tracker-japan-braces-flooding-disruption-typhoon-lam

2.     https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2023/typhoon-lan

3.     https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

4.    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#:~:text=The%20official%20hurricane%20season%20for,%2DAugust%20and%20mid%2DOctober.