Typhoon Doksuri Eyes the Philippines, Taiwan, and China
Last week, we tracked Typhoon Talim as it scraped Hong Kong and made landfall near Zhanjiang in the southern China province of Guangdong [1, 2]. As a category 2-equivalent typhoon, Talim caused significant impacts across southern China and parts of Vietnam [1, 2]. This week, we’re tracking Doksuri, an even more powerful typhoon that was for a brief period classified as a super typhoon (category 5-equivalent winds) [3]. We’ll start by looking at the latest forecast graphic from KinetiCastTM shown below:
Doksuri is predicted to scrape by the northern Philippines during the next day as a category 4-equivalent typhoon. As of the latest advisory from JTWC, the maximum sustained winds were measured at 140 miles per hour. Currently, the typhoon is expected to stay far enough offshore such that the Philippines should avoid the most severe impacts from wind. As such, the current economic loss projections on KinetiCastTM for the Philippines are listed as 129 million USD in Purhcasing Power Parity, or PPP (PPP is used to allow for quick comparisons between countries of different economic levels). However, heavy rainfall and flash flooding is always a concern with any tropical cyclone, particularly in the Philippines [3, 4]. Moreover, the typhoon is expected to come near the Philippines’ largest and most populous island, Luzon, on its journey [3, 4]. Current forecasts call for at least 10-12 inches of rain to fall in Luzon over the next 48-72 hours, with localized amounts as high as 18 inches possible [3, 4]. This is well within the threshold to cause extreme and life-threatening flash flooding. What’s more, as Doksuri passes to the north of the Philippines, the counterclockwise flow around the typhoon means that the majority of the northern parts of the nation will experience significant on-shore wind (see Figure 2). This means that the wind direction will progressively pile up water onto the coastline. As the typhoon is expected to be near peak intensity during this trek, the possible storm surge amounts as displayed on KinetiCastTM are as high as 9-12 feet, with a much larger stretch of coastline expected to see 6-9 feet of surge (Figure 3). Due to the high threat for significant storm surge and flooding rains, the Philippine weather agency has urged people in highly susceptible areas to follow evacuation orders and other instructions from local officials [3, 4].
After this point, Doksuri will continue to track northwest. Previous forecasts had the typhoon coming uncomfortably close to Taiwan as a powerful typhoon [3], but more recent predictions keep the typhoon well offshore of Taiwan. This is good news for the island nation. There is the potential for the track to deviate slightly closer to Taiwan, but a direct landfall looks unlikely. As it approaches China, Doksuri should weaken considerably down to a category 1-equivalent typhoon. As displayed on KinetiCastTM, the current projected losses to Taiwan and China are 1.20 billion USD in PPP and 2.94 billion USD in PPP, respectively.
Despite somewhat of a quiet start, the western Pacific typhoon season has been heating up over the last couple of weeks. In due time, we will be tracking several tropical cyclones across multiple ocean basins. Here at Kinetic Analysis Corporation, we provide you with accurate, near real-time information about a tropical cyclone as it unfolds. We do this by synthesizing information from a variety of sources and translating the meteorological hazards into easily digestible impacts information. This includes populations affected by tropical storm/hurricane force winds and storm surge, economic loss and structural damage estimates, and shutdown times for facilities such as airports and seaports. All of this information is available in our state-of-the-art web app, KinetiCast™. Now for a limited time, we are offering the next 20 people who sign up to use KinetiCast™ a license for $25/month. If you would like more information, please reach out to aagastra@kinanco.com.
References
1. https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/international/south-china-on-guard-as-typhoon-talim-nears
2. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3227874/hong-kong-raises-no-3-typhoon-warning-signal-tropical-storm-talim-intensifies
3. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/doksuri-gain-super-typhoon-strength-it-hurls-towards-china-2023-07-24/#:~:text=The%20last%20typhoon%20to%20have,form%20over%20warm%20sea%20water.
4. https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/24/asia/typhoon-doksuri-philippines-taiwan-hong-kong-china-intl-hnk/index.html