Atlantic Tropical Activity Heating Up

After several weeks of numerous typhoons and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, we are now tracking systems in the Atlantic basin that are threats to land. This comes right on schedule, as we are entering the climatological peak for Atlantic basin tropical activity [1]. The first storm that is an immediate threat to land is Tropical Storm Harold, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico from a tropical wave [2]. Fortunately, Harold is a fast-moving, low-end tropical storm that is expected to make landfall on the coast of South Texas later today (Figure 1). The main impacts from Harold will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding; however, the storm will also provide some much-needed rainfall to portions of South Texas that are currently experiencing drought conditions [3, 4].

Figure 1: Projected wind swath of Tropical Storm Harold, generated by KinetiCast™ models using forecast data from the National Hurricane Center. The solid hurricane symbol denotes the storm position for this forecast. The filled circles are color-coded by intensity. The circles on the dashed line represent the forecast position of the cyclone at 12-hour intervals, and the circles on the solid line depict the past position of the storm at 6-hour intervals.

With Harold’s impacts expected to be fairly minimal, our attention then turns to Tropical Storm Franklin in the eastern Caribbean. Franklin is also expected to remain a weak-to-moderate tropical storm in the near term thanks to elevated levels of wind shear in the Caribbean [5]. However, Franklin is a large, slow-moving system that will make its way toward the nations of Haiti and the Dominican Republic over the next couple of days [6]. As we know from previous experience with tropical cyclones, these nations are incredibly susceptible to even the weakest tropical storms due to their rugged topography and tall mountains [6, 7]. These features make the risk of flooding and mudslides one that the residents of these nations must think about all too often.

The latest forecast graphic from KinetiCast™ calls for 6-9 inches of rain to fall over portions of the Dominican Republic as Franklin moves through. The area of 3-6 inches is significantly larger and includes both Haiti and Puerto Rico. Rainfall could be even higher in localized areas. Once Franklin passes over Hispaniola (the term used to describe the single island group comprised of both Haiti and the Dominican Republic) [8], the system will re-emerge over the southwestern Atlantic. At this point, the uncertainty in the forecast intensity and track increases significantly [2]. Certain modeling shows that Franklin may strengthen and pose a threat to Bermuda down the line [9]. If this transpires, then this blog post likely won’t be the last time that we will be mentioning Franklin.

Figure 2: Projected wind swath of Tropical Storm Franklin, generated by KinetiCast™ models using forecast data from the National Hurricane Center. The solid hurricane symbol denotes the storm position for this forecast. The filled circles are color-coded by intensity. The circles on the dashed line represent the forecast position of the cyclone at 12-hour intervals, and the circles on the solid line depict the past position of the storm at 6-hour intervals.

Figure 3: Forecast rainfall from Tropical Storm Franklin, generated by KinetiCast™ models using forecast data from the National Hurricane Center. The purple area is highlighted to show the potential for 6-9 inches of rain to fall over portions of the Dominican Republic.

As we are in the thick of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic, now is the time to ensure that you/your organization have an organized hurricane response plan in place. We heard about some supply chain managers recently who admitted they don’t know where their factories really are. In the event of a hurricane, they scrambled to confirm if their routes were affected. Even one delay can mean an entire quarter of supplies stuck in a closed port. Here at Kinetic Analysis Corporation, we can help you avoid the headache by providing you with accurate, near real-time information about a tropical cyclone as it unfolds. We do this by synthesizing data from a variety of sources and translating the meteorological hazards into easily digestible impact information. This includes populations affected by tropical storm/hurricane force winds and storm surge, economic loss and structural damage estimates, and shutdown times for facilities such as airports and seaports. All this information is available in our state-of-the-art web app, KinetiCast™. If you would like more information, please reach out to aagastra@kinanco.com.

References

1.     https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20230808/prepare-now-peak-atlantic-hurricane-season#:~:text=The%20peak%20of%20Atlantic%20hurricane%20season%20is%20Sept.,National%20Oceanic%20and%20Atmospheric%20Administration.

2.     https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

3.     https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/tropical-storm-harold-south-texas-rain-floods-rcna101128

4.     https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

5.     https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/220252.shtml?text

6.     https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2023-08-21-tropical-storm-franklin-hispaniola-gert-emily

7.     https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-tropical-storms-hurricane-be92f479321603502a2d67f9d5fce812

8.     https://www.britannica.com/place/Hispaniola

9.     https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/