Tropical Storm Bret Forms, with Another System Following Close Behind

The Atlantic hurricane season has awoken with the formation of Tropical Storm Bret. Forming in the deep tropical north Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Bret is quite unusual for the month of June. In fact, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at Colorado State University and hurricane season forecaster, Bret “is the farthest east that a tropical storm has formed in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N) this early in the calendar year on record.” [1]. Luckily, with it still being June, conditions are not overly conducive for the rapid intensification of Bret into a powerful hurricane. Regardless, several Caribbean islands are under tropical cyclone advisories due to the anticipation of sustained winds up to 60 miles per hour [2]. See the latest forecast graphic from KinetiCast™ below:

Projected wind swath of Tropical Storm Bret, generated by KinetiCast™ models using forecast data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The filled in circles represent the past/forecast path of the cyclone color-coded by intensity.

As the graphic from KinetiCast™ shows, Bret is forecast to remain below hurricane intensity. The current forecast calls for maximum sustained winds of 60-65 miles per hour on approach to the Lesser Antilles. Currently, the islands of Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Barbados are likely to experience the heaviest wind and rain.

Yet another system to the east of Bret, part of a tropical wave dubbed invest 93L, has a 70% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone during the next two days per the latest NHC outlook [2]. Based on the ensemble prediction system [3], this system has a greater likelihood of remaining out in the open Atlantic, but the system does bear watching.

What does all this unusual, early season activity in the Atlantic mean for the rest of the season? Stay tuned for part 2 of this blog post where I highlight the factors that led to the unusual formation of Tropical Storm Bret and analyze the outlook for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season.

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References

1.     https://www.axios.com/2023/06/19/tropical-storm-bret-forms-warm-atlantic-hurricane

2.     https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

3.     https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2023/al932023/